Although it has been reported that Tropical Storm Dorian could pass near southern Puerto Rico between Wednesday night and Thursday at dawn, it is still too early to know the impact that this atmospheric phenomenon could have on the island, as well as its trajectory.
Regardless, the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 11 a.m. bulletin said: “The risks of direct impacts from wind and rainfall has increased for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Interests in those areas should monitor of Dorian and tropical storm and hurricane watches will likely be required later today.”
The National Weather Service (NWS) said the forecasts are still not very accurate. “There is a lot of uncertainty in them, especially in intensity. We will have something more concrete once this phenomenon crosses the Lesser Antilles, which would be for tomorrow morning until the afternoon hours, ”said meteorologist Fernanda Ramos of the NWS. She added that for the moment, the intensity of the forecast indicates that Dorian would be passing south of Puerto Rico as a tropical storm, but said this is something that could change due to several factors.
“The first is that the system is quite compact, so these systems are characterized by being quite erratic in terms of intensity. The second is that the system will soon be interacting with land, with the islands of the Lesser Antilles, and it will also be interacting with a very hostile environment when crossing the Antilles, because it will meet sharp winds and dry air,” she said.
According to the NHC’s latest bulletin at 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Dorian was located at latitude 12.3 degrees north, longitude 57.7 degrees west. In addition, it maintained winds of 60 miles per hour and moving in a west, northwest direction, at a rate of 14 miles per hour. So far, the system is expected to be moving south of Puerto Rico.
"The center will stay on water, so basically what we could be experiencing are extremely deteriorated maritime conditions for the Caribbean Sea area, as well as some rain for the island," Ramos added. However, she said it is too early to have a specific number in terms of the size of the waves. "What is being forecast and observed is that maritime conditions for the southern area of Puerto Rico are extremely deteriorated," she said.